Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The Rule of 72

What is this "Rule of 72", that you run across in investing sooner or later (or right now as you read this)?

It is a fast, simple and reasonably accurate way to estimate how fast your money doubles.

Common Use 1: If your money grows by a consistent G% every year, then it will double after 72/G years.
Example 1: your savings account offers 4% a year. After (72/4) = 18 years, your money will have doubled.

Example 2: Yale's endowment under David Swensen grew at a truly remarkable16.1% a year for many, many years. The endowment was doubling in value every (72/16.1) = 4.47 ~ 4.5 years (!).

Being an approximation, the rule of 72 can't be used indiscriminately, but it is useful for typical investment returns.
  • It is very accurate for G% between 5% to 12%
  • It is reasonably accurate for G% between 2% to 16%.
  • For large returns above 30%, it is not that accurate.
Or using colors where green is accurate and red is inaccurate, the rule of 72 works this well

0.5, 1, 2, 3 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 12,, 14, 15, 16, 18, 20, 25, 30,35, 40, ... .

Less common use: If you sum your returns over several years, even if they are not the same, your money has double when you hit 72.

Example: if you have annual returns (in percent) of 9, 12, -3, 5, 7, 18, 2, 4, 12, 15, this sums to 81. So you would have doubled your money and more in the last year wtih the 15% returns.

Mathematical underpinnings.
If I have time later I'll explain the math behind the rule of 72. For now see the Wikipedia entry.

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